MMF AUM has grown by about $1.1Tn since the beginning of the year. This is not surprising given Fed’s balance sheet growth of $3Tn, bank deposits growth of $2Tn and bank reserves growth of $1.6Tn.
None of this is money on the sidelines.
This is money which has already been accounted for. The Fed did a liquidity and duration swap – out of UST coupons and MBS (mostly, some corporate credit) into T-Bills/reserves/deposits. That’s all. Ok, maybe some of that money will eventually go into risky assets, but why should it? If it wanted to, it would have gone even before the Fed swap. Obviously, it is not moving at the moment. It would have declined naturally after tax payments go though, but that could possibly be delayed again.
The only thing we see, is a flattening of the growth rate. Total AUM is back to early May level, which is where bank reserves have declined to as well. Again, that’s not surprising.
Is there money on the sidelines?
Yes, the only way to create that is to increase private sector net financial assets. Normally, this is done when the private sector receives income in exchange for work. In the early 1980s, this mechanism, unfortunately stalled, and the majority of the private sector income was generated in exchange of debt, which is kind of like money on the sidelines (net cash ‘creation’ through leverage), but it is a doble-edged weapon as that debt has an expiration and a positive interest rate. We are working on both the former – debt forgiveness, and the latter – interest rates are close to 0% now.
The only entity that can create financial assets without the debt liability, ‘money on the sidelines’, is the government: the Fed only lends money into existence, the Treasury spends it. This is exactly what the US government has done with the CARES Act: the SBA PPP could provide for about $600Bn of loan forgiveness ($112Bn of which has gone through) while the Recovery Rebates provide for about $300Bn of direct family assistance, no strings attached. This is not permanent, but it is an important step towards UBI/Helicopter money. This could change everything.