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Category Archives: VR

The Corona virus will push us further into the digital medium

27 Thursday Feb 2020

Posted by beyondoverton in De-urbanization, Decentralization, Travel, VR

≈ 1 Comment

The facemask will become a feature of our daily life: it was already turning into a fashion symbol before the virus hit. In the near future, the face mask will be incorporated into the VR ‘goggles’, 

The Corona virus will only accelerate the shift towards the digital medium at the expense of the physical medium of human existence. Millennials have more or less embraced this change: apart from having to go to school they do not leave their bedrooms anymore (and I suspect, if the quarantine stays on longer, governments will start to consider settling up virtual classrooms). If you don’t have a teenager just have a cursory check on some of the comments on Tiktok to get an idea that the young generation does not consider the virus a big issue at all – it affects mostly the older generation, plus a quarantine allows the young to spend more time in the digital world of their bedrooms.

But, if the quarantines remain a feature in the developed world, the virus could also have a profound effect on the older generation in terms of travel and work preferences. For example, the trend decline in car sales globally will accelerate. Long distance vacation travel is also likely to slow down; physical social interaction, already massively in decline, as well. The older generations may be ‘forced’ into the digital medium for health and safety concerns, as well as to avoid increasing living costs.

Does that mean any physical infrastructure not directly linked to the new medium becomes obsolete? This is an important question for policy makers to consider especially now as the calls for fiscal action become louder and louder. In that sense, the thinking in the higher echelons of power in the West are either at level zero (a border wall), or level one (a bridge in the Irish sea, high speed rail). Instead, we need at least second level thinking here, for example, what is the new mobility landscape?

If Chevron’s London office staff working from home proves to be either non-disruptive or even possibly increase productivity, would that become the new normal? Outsourcing office space for free from your own employees, and saving massively on real estate costs, which company wouldn’t jump at the opportunity (note this is no different to getting consumer data for free in exchange for social media access, or booking your own travels in exchange for lower prices – it’s all part of the same trend)?

This means more de-urbanization. The concept of the city as a melting pot of ideas and people is also becoming obsolete. Moreover, this is again an existing trend: urbanization rates have been decreasing in the developed world independently as a feature of decentralization.

Will the supply chains shift as a result of all this? Yes. Again, a well-established trend already which started in earnest with the decision to Brexit in 2016, Trump’s de-globalization campaign and the ensuing US-China trade war. While China is the more obvious ‘loser’ here (though, not necessarily clear, as China was already moving up the value chain and this process may have only accelerated this, as well as its push to ‘own; the digital medium through the development of 5G), the beneficiaries are not clear. It is unlikely, though, to be any other emerging market countries, as that does not take care of the issue at hand (the start of this trend in 2016).

Though actual production is likely to come back to the developed world, this does not necessarily mean higher employment long term. There is yet another trend, which has already been in place for a few years, which will get a strong push here, that of automation of production. We haven’t seen the benefits of automation yet largely because it has either not been profitable enough, or because of politics (keep employment higher until we figure out what to do with people, and in return, we ‘let’ you book revenues in tax havens so you save on corporate taxes and have more cash for share buybacks!). But automation costs have been coming down as technology advances, while human costs have been perking up. Political developments, plus massively increasing federal budget deficits, have also put pressure on clamping down on tax havens. We can finally see the seeds of 3D printing and precision manufacturing bear fruit. This is very bullish companies in these two sectors.

With manufacturing supply chains practically disintegrated, the only ones that will matter in the digital medium are commodities supplies – this is very bullish commodity exporting countries.

Is that the new normal?

My flight from London to Rome on March 26 was practically empty

We are entering a ‘Ready Player One’ world. The trend-decline in physical infrastructure, in the developed world – decades long, will probably accelerate. It is too late to build the HS2. The trend-increase in alternative ‘realities’, on the other hand, whether we call them fake news, social bubbles, or whatever, will only accelerate. So, focus is shifting to building the foundation of the equivalent of the digital ‘Interstate Highway System’: 5G is the most important development in that regard at the moment, and the main reason the US-China trade war started in the first place. 

VR changes everything

31 Tuesday Oct 2017

Posted by beyondoverton in VR

≈ Leave a comment


The history of humankind is one of gradually reduced mobility. We generally travel for three reasons: resources, work, entertainment. In the past, as humans captured and started governing more of nature thanks to advances in technology, the need to travel for each of the above decreased. Now, as we move to the digital medium thanks to advances in VR, the need to travel may completely disappear. With VR on the cusp of mass adoption, betting on the autonomous car, whether EV or solar-battery powered, as the next big thing in mobility, may not be the smartest thing to do.

It is no wonder that the means of transportation have actually barely changed even from pre-historic times. For example, in some parts of the world people still use the horse to go places. The cart and the boat are still here, just more powerful because we have improved our energy sources (when it comes the cart-auto, not necessarily even faster in the big cities). The train may look novel but, ultimately, it is just a more efficient version of a mass transportation ‘cart’. The airplane, however, is really a novel way of covering distances. First, because it is air-based while all other means of transportation had so far been land/water-based. Second, because it is much faster than any other means of transportation. 

Perhaps that is why we have been so fascinated with the flying car as the next step in improving our mobility. But the flying car never came. I argue below that this is because there is no need for it as humans have naturally moved less and less through the ages. (It may actually seem less so, as images of the great sea voyages during the Renaissance or as we recently have started to conquer space, come to mind, but these are exceptional cases which actually do not involve that many people relative to the mass human movements in the past.) In addition, as VR continues to improve, we are in the process of ‘moving’ away from the physical to a completely new and different medium of being: the digital.

It is generally believed and accepted that the first human appeared in Africa and from there settled all distant corners of the Earth in search for basic resources for survival. We cut on our nomadic lifestyle of ‘travelling’ for resources first after the Agricultural Revolution when we stopped chasing wild animals for food and settled to a more sedentary lifestyle. That included conquering more arable land and learning wholesale farming, as well as perfecting animal domestication. Mobility actually temporarily increased as people moved to where the arable land is – cities formed and grew. But once settled there, there was barely a need to go anywhere else.

This was also the first time we acquired a surplus over and beyond our needs for survival. Sadly, this did not eliminate scarcity because we lacked the means for its ‘fair’ distribution. The Agricultural Revolution was perhaps the peak of human mobility for resources.

The second time we drastically reduced our mobility was after the Industrial Revolution. Back then we stopped producing our own food and focused on specializing in producing goods for basic needs in much greater quantity than it was ever necessary. This also resulted in a temporary increase in mobility as people had to come to the factories. Cities naturally grew bigger, but once people settled there, mobility went down again. During this period our welfare drastically improved to the point that we soon started to produce goods not just for basic consumption but also for leisure and entertainment. Our ability to distribute this surplus accordingly, unfortunately did not. The Industrial Revolution heralded the beginning of the need to travel for work. That need probably reached a peak sometime after WW2.

The beginnings of the Digital Revolution sometime in the 1980s marked the third time we reduced our mobility as the need to travel to acquire resources and for work became less prevalent. Again, similar to the previous instances, our mobility got a temporary boost because we started travelling for leisure. By then, the fruits of the technological advances of the past had brought an unbelievable welfare surplus which, though never distributed equally, was enough to push not just basic but also discretionary goods prices down. This made leisure and entertainment affordable to the masses. People not only went to restaurants to eat (instead of at home) but to the movies and bowling alleys for fun. Later on, people even started taking vacations in different continents! Mobility for entertainment probably reached a peak in 2007 with the invention of the smartphone (and, unfortunately, with the wider spread of terrorism more globally).

I fear the wide adoption of VR will bring the final nail in the coffin of human mobility. Just until a few years ago, at least we used to go ‘shopping for resources’ to our corner grocery store. Now Amazon and a bunch of other companies bring our food and necessities to our door step. Travelling for work is also decreasing as Internet/network connectivity improves. VR brings the culmination of our mobility for entertainment as well, as the need to go to a concert, the movies, etc. or even travelling across the world on vacation is reduced.

VR will eventually be able to replicate the stimulation to all our senses and once that happens the ‘V’ in VR may become redundant. At the moment vision and sound are the easiest to manipulate. But still, a wide-field vision is mostly lacking in current VR headsets (humans can see at about 220 degrees, the best VR headset is about half that). Resolution is another one which needs to undergo further improvements to get to the 20/20 human vision. Touch is probably the next one after to improve on, and there are already huge strides made in that regard with the haptic glove, for example. Taste and smell are the most difficult ones to replicate but there is progress there too.

Our VR experience does not need to be 100% of what is current ‘reality’. But as that experience improves and as the cost of VR-ing goes down, humans will naturally use more of it relative to the ‘real thing’. Our physical mobility will suffer even more as a result. That is the easier bet simply because there is such a strong trend of this process going back thousands of years. However, eventually, anything associated with the current physical reality may become irrelevant.

And this is likely to happen within our lifetime, or as we used to say on the trading floor, before the long bond matures. It is simply inconceivable that, from one hand, we are working on brain-computer interface and we have even managed for the first time to upload a brain on a computer but then, on the hand, we are still forecasting that our relationship to the physical world will not change much.

I am sure the self-driving EV/Solar ‘car’ is coming but I think the overall number of ‘cars’ on the road will be much, much smaller than what people are currently forecasting. And, yes, most likely people will still be travelling in the physical world, but that will be the exception rather than the rule. And since I mentioned the ‘flying car’, well, it is already here – the drone. But unlike in most science fiction movies, it will continue to be used to transport mostly basic physical goods to the humans in VR ‘capsules’ who need to refuel their energy in the old-fashioned way, i.e. until we decide to upload our brain and be completely cut off from this reality…  

The elephant in the room is Virtual Reality

09 Monday Oct 2017

Posted by beyondoverton in VR

≈ Leave a comment

The Digital Revolution

The most profound shift happening now is the one from physical to digital. In terms of concept this follows all the other big transitions of the past: agriculture->industry->services. However, in terms of scope and in terms of its effects, this transition is much bigger. All other shifts in the past have been within the physical medium. This is the first time we are transcending mediums. At the same time, we continue to project the future only in terms of the physical medium. For example, when it comes to transportation, the main discussion is what the car of the future will be. One of the boldest predictions that I have seen so far, for example, is an autonomous EV run by a DAO. That still assumes that the physical world will remain the main medium for humanity. But what if that is not the case? How can we reconcile that the brightest human minds are discussing computer brain upload and transhumanism while at the same time entertaining the idea of humans going from point A to B still in a box? The two ideas are incompatible.

A big diversion

Technology has at last developed so that Virtual Reality (VR) has the potential to change humanity profoundly. VR is closely linked to the idea of sub-consciousness and we are already spending 1/3 of our daily life (on average) in such a state while sleeping and dreaming virtual worlds. In fact, the conscious state is just a cover of the subliminal perception which determines to a large extent our actions. It is the guardian of the virtual world and by filtering through only that which we are able to make sense of, it creates the ‘real world’ which we inhabit in our conscious states.

Our human body processes information through the senses (sight, hearing, touch, taste and smell) in various ways we are most of the time not aware of because our consciousness does not have the ability to analyze all this data. To a certain extent, consciousness leaves a lot of stuff on the table when it comes to our understanding of what is going on (no wonder humans have always tried various means to transcend our conscious state). It only gives us just about enough information so that we can ‘survive’. The bottom line is that the process of VR is a natural continuation of what we humans are. The physical reality has been good to us so far but perhaps we are at a stage of development which we can start to ‘make sense’ of the much bigger world which sub-consciousness can reveal to us, a world in which we can not only survive but prosper.      

Back to the ‘car’ of the future

It is not inconceivable that in the future a VR machine would be the main means of human ‘transportation’. Even today we travel less for work and pleasure, we shop on line, we prefer to play video games than participate in outdoor activities, we hang out in virtual chat rooms and engage with our friends on Facebook, etc. And even if there is work in the future, most likely it would not be of a physical nature which would mean that we would be able to do it ‘from distance’. And if VR eventually is able to re-create the same emotional experiences which we now encounter in real life, travelling for pleasure would also be minimal. It does not mean that humans would not move in the physical world, but that would be a ‘luxury’.  

Forecasting auto production numbers, whether EV or ICE or whatever that far in the future (2030-2040), etc. becomes a totally meaningless exercise. It is not just that though. Forecasting anything that has to do with the physical medium becomes a non-linear exercise: energy demand, consumer behavior, health, education, etc.

Policy makers need to take that into account and do not submit to calls to spend blindly on old-fashioned infrastructure. Investors need to think laterally how the VR world will totally change some of the existing industry sectors. We might not know which would be the company of the future to bet on, but we could do well to identify some of the companies which are less likely to make it in the future VR world.

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