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Category Archives: Quotes

We need a ‘Marriner Eccles’ of our time

01 Sunday Oct 2017

Posted by beyondoverton in Quotes

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Marriner Eccles, Chair of the Federal Reserve, 1934-1948, one of the unsung heroes of the Great Depression in the US.

Below is from a Hearing before the Committee on Finance US Senate, February 1933.

  • Before effective action can be taken to stop the devastating effects of the depression, it must be recognized that the breakdown of our present economic system is due to the failure of our political and financial leadership to intelligently deal with the money problem. In the real world there is no cause nor reason for the unemployment with its resultant destitution and suffering of fully one-third of our entire population. We have all and more of the material wealth which we had at the peak of our prosperity in the year 1929. Our people need and want everything which our abundant facilities and resources are able to provide for them.
  • The problem of production has been solved, and we need no further capital accumulation for the present, which could only be utilized in further increasing our productive facilities or extending further foreign credits. We have a complete economic plant able to supply a superabundance of not only all of the necessities of our people, but the comforts and luxuries as well.
  • Our problem, then, becomes one purely of distribution. This can only be brought about by providing purchasing power sufficiently adequate to enable the people to obtain the consumption goods which we, as a nation, are able to produce. The economic system can serve no other purpose and expect to survive.
  • If our problem is then the result of the failure of our money system to properly function, which to-day is generally recognized, we then must turn to the consideration of the necessary corrective measures to be brought about in that field; otherwise, we can only expect to sink deeper in our dilemma and distress, with possible revolution, with social disintegration, with the world in ruins, the network of its financial obligations in shreds, with the very basis of law and order shattered. Under such a condition nothing but a primitive society is possible.
  • The nineteenth century economics will no longer serve our purpose— an economic age 150 years old has come to an end. The orthodox capitalistic system of uncontrolled individualism, with its free competition, will no longer serve our purpose. We must think in terms of the scientific, technological, interdependent machine age, which can only survive and function under a modified capitalistic system controlled and regulated from the top by government.
  • Money has no utility or economic value except to serve as a medium of exchange.
  • The debt structure has obtained its present astronomical proportions due to an unbalanced distribution of wealth production as measured in buying power during our years of prosperity. Too much of the product of labor was diverted into capital goods, and as a result what seemed to be our prosperity was maintained on a basis of abnormal credit both at home and abroad.
  • This naturally reduced the demand for goods of all kinds, bringing about what appeared to be overproduction, but what in reality was underconsumption measured in terms of the real world and not the money world.
  • Why was it that during the war when there was no depression we did not insist upon balancing the Budget by sufficient taxation of our surplus income instead of using Government credit to the extent of $27,000,000,000? Why was it that we heard nothing of the necessity of balancing the Federal Budget in order to maintain the Government credit when we had a deficit of $9,000,000,000 in 1918 and $13,000,000,000 in 1919? Why was it that there was no unemployment at that time and an insufficient amount of money as a medium of exchange?
  • Why resort to inflation of the sort referred to when prices can be increased and business revived on the basis of our present money system? We have nearly one and a half billion currency more in circulation at the present time than we had at the peak of 1929, and under our present money system we are able to increase this by several billion more without resorting to any of the three inflationary measures popularly advocated. There is sufficient money available in our present system to adequately adjust our present price structure. Our price structure depends more upon the velocity of money than it does upon the volume.
  • I repeat there is plenty of money to-day to bring about a restoration of prices, but the chief trouble is that it is in the wrong place; it is concentrated in the larger financial centers of the country, the creditor sections, leaving a great portion of the back country, or the debtor sections, drained dry and making it appear that there is a great shortage of money and that it is, therefore, necessary for the Government to print more. This maldistribution of our money supply is the result of the relationship between debtor and creditor sections— just the same as the relation between this as a creditor nation and another nation as a debtor nation—and the development of our industries into vast systems concentrated in the larger centers.
  • Senator WALSH of Massachusetts. When do you think prosperity will come back? Mr. ECCLES. It depends entirely on what the Government does. It will not come back unless action is taken by the Federal Government, in my judgment.

Note: Italics and bold are mine

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

20 Wednesday Sep 2017

Posted by beyondoverton in Quotes

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by Edwin Lefevre

  • The tape does not concern itself with the why and wherefore. It doesn’t go into explanations… The reason for what a certain stock does today may not be known for two or three days, or weeks, or months. But what the dickens does that matter? Your business with the tape is now–not tomorrow. The reason can wait. But you must act instantly or be left.
  • And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn.
  • What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favoured my play.  There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is also the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time.  No man can have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.
  • If somebody had told me my method would not work I nevertheless would have tried it out to make sure for myself, for when I am wrong only one thing convinces me of it, and that is, to lose money.  And I am only right when I make money.  That is speculating.
  • They say you never go broke taking profits.  No, you don’t.  But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.
  • I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realised at last that when old Mr Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements-that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. 
  • The market does not beat them.  They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.  Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did.  He had not only the courage of his convictions but also the intelligence and patience to sit tight. 
  • Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me.  Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.  In a bull market the game is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is near its end. 
  • Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • Losing money is the least of my troubles.  A loss never troubles me after I take it.  I forget it overnight.  But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul. 
  • It sounds very easy to say that all you have to do is to watch the tape, establish your resistance points and be ready to trade along the line of least resistance as soon as you have determined it.  But in actual practice a man has to guard against many things, and most of all against himself – that is, against human nature.
  • Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to.
  • The game does not change and neither does human nature.
  • I trade on my own information and follow my own methods.
  • He was utterly fearless but never reckless.  He could, and did, turn on a twinkling if he found he was wrong. 
  • The speculator’s deadly enemies are: Ignorance, greed, fear and hope.  All the statue books in the world and all the rule books on all the Exchanges of the earth cannot eliminate these from the human animal
  • I sometimes think that speculation must be an unnatural sort of business, because I find that the average speculator has arrayed against his own nature.  The weaknesses that all men are prone to are fatal to success in speculation – usually those very weaknesses that make him likable to his fellows or that he himself particularly guards against in those other ventures of his where they are not nearly so dangerous as when he is trading in commodities or stocks. 
  • The public ought always to keep in mind the elementals of stock trading.  When a stock is going up no elaborate explanation is needed as to why it is going up.  It takes continuous buying to make a stock keep going up.  As long as it does so, with only small and natural reactions from time to time, it is a pretty safe proposition to trail with it. 
  • But if after a long steady rise a stock turns and gradually begins to go down, with only occasionally small rallies, it is obvious that the line of least resistance has changed from upward to downward.  Such being the case why should anyone ask for explanations? 

Frederick Soddy: The Role of Money

15 Friday Sep 2017

Posted by beyondoverton in Monetary Policy, Quotes

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“Money now is the NOTHING you get for SOMETHING before you can get ANYTHING.”

  • This book attempts to clear up the mystery of money in its social aspect. With the monetary system in the whole world in chaos, this mystery has never been so carefully fostered as it is today. And this is all the more curious in as much as there is not the slightest reason for this mystery. This book will show what money now is, what it does, and what it should do. From this will emerge the recognition of what has always been the role of money. The standpoint from which most books on money are written has been reversed. In this book the subject is not treated from the point of view of the bankers as those are called who create by far the greater proportion of money but from that of the PUBLIC, who at present have to give up valuable goods and services to the bankers in return for the money that they have so cleverly created and create. This, surely, is what the public really wants to know about money.
  • In this book the mode of approach and the philosophy of money is expounded in the light of a group of new doctrines, to which the name ergosophy is collectively given, which regard economics, sociology, and history with the eye of the engineer rather than with that of the humanist.
  • To this day we are in the grip of a mercantile system which fritters away in distribution most of the advantage gained in lightening the labour of producing wealth.
  • Money now is the NOTHING you get for SOMETHING before you can get ANYTHING. As a matter of fact, this definition not only answers comprehensively what money now is but answers perfectly satisfactory all that money has always been, whether it has been coin or paper or any other form. From the point of view of the owner or possessor of it, money is the credit he has established in his favour with the community in which it passes current or is “legal tender”, by having given up in the past valuable goods and services for nothing, so as to obtain at his own convenience, in the future, equivalent value in turn for nothing. It is merely an ingenious device to secure payment in advance, and in a monetary civilization the owners of money are those who have paid in advance for definite market values if buyable goods and services, without as yet having received them.
  • Money, of course, is an entirely peculiar form of credit-debt relation from which no one can escape. Its exchange value depends, in fact, simply on the amount of wealth people voluntarily prefer to go without rather than possess.
  • The essential feature of money is that it is given in exchange of a wealth that currently does not exist, otherwise it would have been bartered. So, money is a legal claim to wealth over and above the wealth in existence. The owners of money possess claims to what they have given up, but what they have given up does not actually exist. Thus, the constant need to produce more and more goods. That is why money is virtual wealth.
  • If we examine the history of progress, the direction it has taken appears so often a matter of intuition and conviction, rather than to depend on anything that at the time would have been accepted as convincing or logical proof. One, certainly, of these signs is how what appears nothing so much as a jig-saw puzzle of disconnected events and conundrums suddenly seems to fit together into a picture, to be lost again in a haze of uncertainty, but always returning, each time a little more orderly and definite.
  • [N]ot one of the maladies afflicting the relations of men to-day are due to any real physical insufficiency, such as characterized the earlier epochs of history. They are due to the exact opposite,” over-production,”” glut,” competition for markets, and the like, which renders the continued existence of poverty and destitution a physical absurdity. Where Mr. Baldwin asked “What is the use of being able to make goods if you cannot sell them? ” the new economist would say at once ” Why don’t we sell them? What is money for? ” and so cut at once the Gordian knot of the whole tangle.
  • In brief, we live in a scientific age, the purpose of which is frustrated by the survival of beliefs in money, as the practical mechanism of distribution, which are the exact opposite of those which have made that age possible. The symptoms and repercussions are of infinite obscurity and complexity, but the remedy is neither obscure nor complex. It is as devastatingly simple and effective as correcting an error of arithmetic.

Source: “The Role of Money: What It Should Be Contrasted With What It Has Become”, 1934

Margin call

12 Tuesday Sep 2017

Posted by beyondoverton in Debt, Quotes

≈ 3 Comments

“So, you think we might have put a few people out of business today. That it’s all for naught. You’ve been doing that every day for almost forty years Sam. And if this is all for naught then so is everything out there. It’s just money; it’s made up. Pieces of paper with pictures on it so we don’t have to kill each other just to get something to eat. It’s not wrong. And it’s certainly no different today than it’s ever been. 1637, 1797, 1819, 37, 57, 84, 1901, 07, 29, 1937, 1974, 1987-Jesus, didn’t that fuck up me up good-92, 97, 2000 and whatever we want to call this. It’s all just the same thing over and over; we can’t help ourselves. And you and I can’t control it, or stop it, or even slow it. Or even ever-so-slightly alter it. We just react. And we make a lot money if we get it right. And we get left by the side of the side of the road if we get it wrong. And there have always been and there always will be the same percentage of winners and losers. Happy foxes and sad sacks. Fat cats and starving dogs in this world. Yeah, there may be more of us today than there’s ever been. But the percentages-they stay exactly the same.” John Tuld in Margin Call

Source: NYSE. Leverage is calculated as the following ratio: NYSE firms debit balances in margin accounts (or margin debt)/ (NYSE free credit balances in cash accounts + credit balances in margin accounts)

Are stocks overvalued? This is the longest stock bull market without a X% drop since XXXX (input your own numbers; they are meaningless, anyway)…  Sure, you must know your history and you must know your valuations. That’s the minimum when it comes to investing money. But none of them provides an edge. History is a pattern recognition puzzle, and, nowadays, as long as you provide the right inputs, even a simple algo would be able to sort it out. Valuation, on the hand, is just simple math. But again, you need the right variables. Knowing what to include and what to omit is tough but it is what would make a difference.

There is one thing, however, which I think beats all other ‘basic’ variables when it comes to figuring out the turning points in investment trends. I think that is leverage. Leverage matters especially in situations like we have today with stocks hitting all time highs and smart people questioning the sustainability of this long bull market. The thing is, we believe history and valuations provide the answers but it is a mind trick – we get the impression they do because that’s what we have been told and because it looks like this… but only in hindsight.

The market, however, can go down on anything that scares people if leverage is high. And it would not be one particular thing: everyone might have a different reason to sell. It could be a geo political event or it could be even something personal. But the underlying reason for selling would be the same – they had to sell!

“Everything needs to change, so that everything can stay the same” (‘Il Gattopardo’, Guiseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa). In other words, what is the context? The same event that happened 50 years ago might provide a totally different outcome now. If it was otherwise and life was linear, investing would have been too easy and life would have been too boring.

For example, history ‘changed’ in 1982 when rule 10B-18 was introduced providing ‘safe haven’ for US companies to buy back their own shares. Corporate buybacks were almost non-existent before. After this rule came into place, US corporates became the biggest buyers of US shares. The result has been negative net-issuance of US shares since at least 2000. Let me repeat that, the net supply of US shares (IPOs, etc. minus buybacks, etc.) has been negative for the last 17 years or so. How many people are taking this into account when they do their valuation analysis?

On the other hand, given how much the composition of stock indices has changed throughout time, how relevant is it to look at a time-series of index-based valuation variables?  Aren’t we comparing apples to oranges? Should US Steel, for example, trade at the same multiples as IBM, Apple, Amazon? I do not have answers to these questions. And even if I did, it would be irrelevant because what matters is what everyone else also thinks, and even if I knew what everyone else thinks, it would be still irrelevant because people do not always do the things they should be doing or thinking. But people always act when they do not have a choice.

When your broker calls you to post some extra margin, which you cannot do, you do not have a choice but to sell. But, don’t worry, this is not going to happen when stocks are hitting all-time highs. So, don’t get too excited about getting the top of the market even if you know what the leverage is. But knowing that the leverage is too high and that, maybe, just maybe, people do not have a choice, will help you sell AFTER the market has gone down 2%, 5%, 10%… Whatever that number is, whenever you think the ‘pain’ becomes unbearable. This is when the trend changes and the buy-on-dip guys get buried and it becomes sell-on-pops.

So, the trick is to measure the leverage or to at least to get an idea of how extended it is. One widely cited measure is the NYSE margin debt (the debit balances in margin accounts – chart below). I remember it was a compelling chart to look at in the summer of 2013 when margin debt was approaching the pre-2008 highs. But then it kept going and going, hitting new highs ever since… In the spring of 2015, after it had hit yet another high, it started dropping all the way until the beginning of 2016. And what happened to stocks? Nothing. Margin debt  is sitting on a new high even now but anyone shorting stocks using this measure of leverage has not done that well recently.

Source: NYSE

We can also look at the difference between the credit (+ cash) and debit balances of firms’ margin accounts on the NYSE. I call that net margin debt (chart below). That’s even more confusing as we can see the pre-2000 top but for some reason NYSE firms were in net credit (big negative spike) just before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. And again, since the summer of 2013 this measure of leverage has been hitting new highs.

Source: NYSE

Alternatively, we can look at the ratio between the two, or what I called, NYSE ‘Leverage’ (chart at the top of the post). This measure is approaching the highs reached at the peak of the Russia crisis and Dotcom crisis. Should we sell? How well would we have done if we followed this signal in 2008? Quite bad actually as this ratio hit the bottom the month before Lehman’s bankruptcy. But of course, 2008 was a ‘debt’ problem, not an ‘equity’ problem like 2000 was. Still US equities had a peak-to-trough decline of more than 50% back then. The bottom line is still that there was not much in the equity valuations and ‘nothing’ in equity accounts leverage that would have helped us predict such an outcome.

These charts above are not especially useful and would not have been much help in our investment decisions. That’s because even leverage has to be taken into context when looking at history. Because even if you have to post extra margin but you can still borrow at a reasonable rate (somewhere else) you might decide to choose the latter instead of selling. So, ceteris paribus, high leverage and high interest rates are the worst possible combination, but high leverage and low rates (the status quo since 2013 at least) means nothing.

Source: NYSE

Indeed, in the context of US interest rates, NYSE leverage actually looks reasonable, not too far from the lows post 2008 financial crisis (chart above). This is purely a function of how low rates have been in that period. Notice, for example, the high leverage throughout the 1990s when we also had a booming stock market. Which opens up another angle of thought. If rates do rise, as the base rate is indeed right now, then high leverage can quickly become a problem.

George Carlin (1)

07 Thursday Sep 2017

Posted by beyondoverton in Quotes

≈ Leave a comment

  • “People who see life as anything more than pure entertainment are missing the point.”
  • “Always do whatever is next.”
  • “Most people work just hard enough not to get fired and get paid just enough money not to quit.”
  • “Not only do I not know what’s going on, I wouldn’t know what to do about it if I did.”
  • “I think people should be allowed to do anything they want. We haven’t tried that for a while. Maybe this time it’ll work.”
  • “Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.”
  • “If you try to fail, and succeed, which have you done?” 
  • “I do this real moron thing, and it’s called thinking. And apparently I’m not a very good American because I like to form my own opinions.” 
  • “I went to a bookstore and asked the saleswoman, ‘Where’s the self-help section?’ She said if she told me, it would defeat the purpose.”
  • “Atheism is a non-prophet organization.”
  • “Tell people there’s an invisible man in the sky who created the universe, and the vast majority will believe you. Tell them the paint is wet, and they have to touch it to be sure.”
  • “How is it possible to have a civil war?” 
  • “Isn’t it a bit unnerving that doctors call what they do “practice”?”
  • “In America, anyone can become president. That’s the problem.” 
  • “The caterpillar does all the work, but the butterfly gets all the publicity.” 
  • “Some people have no idea what they’re doing, and a lot of them are really good at it.” 
  • “It’s never just a game when you’re winning.” 
  • “If the black box flight recorder is never damaged during a plane crash, why isn’t the whole airplane made out of that stuff? ” 
  • “Don’t just teach your children to read… Teach them to question what they read. Teach them to question everything.”
  • “I have lots of ideas. Trouble is, most of them suck. ” 
  • “I was thinking about how people seem to read the bible a lot more as they get older, and then it dawned on me—they’re cramming for their final exam.” 
  • And please don’t confuse my point of view with cynicism; the real cynics are the ones who tell you everything’s gonna be all right.” 

Stanisław Jerzy Lec

29 Saturday Jul 2017

Posted by beyondoverton in Quotes

≈ Leave a comment

  • Before we conquer deep space let’s try to bridge inter-human space.
  • You have broken the wall of your cell with your head. What are you going to do in your neighbor’s cell?
  • Maybe your God wants you to boast about him in front of all other gods.
  • Cannibals using fork and knife – is this progress?
  • Everyone is an actor but is there a script for everyone?
  • The peak of human morals: moving-prisons for nomads.
  • Once again, I will start from the beginning, but before that, how do I end?
  • How does the wind know which way to blow?
  • The ultimate nightmare: bureaucracy takes over the country after it has eliminated ignorance.
  • I welcome all thoughts that prevent me from thinking.
  • I was forced to use wings as I was thrown out of the airplane without a parachute.
  • I prefer “Entry forbidden” to “No entry”.
  • I do not agree with math: the sum of zero is a humongous number!
  • Some leaders would cut the hands of their citizens if they did not need them to clap.
  • I was dreaming of reality. I woke up relieved.
  • Do not turn your back on reality? How is this possible if reality surrounds us everywhere.
  • Can the devil tempt me in believing in God?
  • If you want to climb high, you have to fold your wings.
  • Humans: live before it becomes fashionable to do something else.
  • Be careful dramatizing your life – what if there is a better actor for your part?
  • Be careful when fame shines on you. Your enemies are the ones hiding in the shadow.
  • Don’t waste the energy accumulated from going down the slope.
  • If there is no precedent that’s also a precedent.
  • The first condition of immortality is death.
  • Can you make up lack of talent with character?
  • Many things were not created because of the impossibility of them being named.
  • The fact that he died is not proof that he lived.
  • When you think about it, the same fire which Prometheus stole from the gods was used to burn Giordano Bruno.
  • As we get closer to the truth, we move away from reality.
  • If you want to get to the source, you must swim against the current.
  • Some people want to believe in the things they understand; others want to understand the things they believe in.
  • His conscience is clear as it has never been used.
  • Usually, the exit is where the entrance was.

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