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  • BeyondOverton Travel
    • Silk Road (1): If Turkey is in crisis, it’s not obvious visiting it
    • Silk Road (2): Could beautiful nature and ancient history create a false sense of entitlement?
    • Silk Road (3): Fast Car
    • Silk Road (4):We took a bus ride to Iran
    • Silk Road (5): Border bothers
    • Silk Road (6): Chevrolet Land
    • Silk Road (7): Free-roaming camels and wild horses
    • Silk Road (8): China West to East
    • Silk Road (9): I have not told half of what I saw
  • BLOG
  • g88kboy Travel
    • On the Silk Road
    • Bulgaria : The Chicken crossed the Road
    • Turkey : The Country, not the Bird
    • Georgia on my Mind
    • Armenian Ayran
    • Iran – The Curious Land
    • An American in Azerbaijan
    • Uzbekistan: Golden Teeth and Neon Signs
    • Kazakhstan: Thirty Sweating Seniors
    • China Part One – Pandas Are Extinct
    • China Part Two: My TED Talk (Deep Analysis)
    • Phillipines – They Relax, I (pretend to😉) Study
    • Singapore: flashing trees and a torrent of tears
    • Malaysia: That ain’t no croc, it’s a log
    • Brunei: The Instinctive Fight for Superior Domination
    • Phillipines: Hello Friend Again
  • Outside the window
    • Bulgaria
    • Turkey
    • Georgia
    • Armenia
    • Iran
    • Azerbaijan
    • Uzbekistan
    • Kazakhstan

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Category Archives: EM

Silk Road (5): Border bothers

24 Wednesday Oct 2018

Posted by beyondoverton in EM, Travel

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Azerbaijan

Every national border marks the place where two gangs of bandits got too exhausted to kill each other anymore and signed a treaty.

~Robert Anton Wilson

 

Borders are a complicated matter. In Europe, thanks to the EU, we don’t even notice them now, but I remember the days, pre-EU, when I had
to get visas every single time I wanted to travel abroad on my Bulgarian
passport. Still, it’s interesting to think that when it comes to passports,
they are a relatively recent phenomenon, having been introduced only in the early 20th century.

I had already noticed the Azerbaijan border upon entering Armenia from Georgia because it is a stone’s throw away from there. We could see the abandoned houses along the road and on the hills around us on the Armenian side: the Nagorno – Karabakh conflict continues to be a big issue for these two countries. On leaving Armenia, I was specifically asked if I would be coming from Iran back through Armenia or Azerbaijan. On entering Azerbaijan, we were summoned and questioned (in French, the official either did not speak or refused to speak Russian) why we had visited Armenia.

The bus trip Tehran – Baku took 22 hours, of which the majority were spent either at the border, waiting for customs inspection, or at arbitrary and frequent stops for lunch, breakfast, dinner, tea etc. The 70% or so devaluation of the Iranian currency had created a brisk trade across the border: Iranian consumer goods had become incredibly cheap compared to Azeri ones and some people naturally took advantage of this. However, Azeri customs officials were not willing to turn a blind eye. This caused massive arguments about what could pass the border (can you imagine arguing with British customs about what you are allowed to bring in the country!?) which meant it took ten hours for just our bus to go through.

The town of Astara bridges the border there. This, plus the fact that there is a beach on the Azerbaijan side, reminded me a bit of the Turkey-Georgia border at Sarp – only that instead of the Black Sea there is
the Caspian Sea, and Batumi’s equivalent, Baku, is some 300km away (instead of 10km away in the former). There was only one other thing that brought memories from this other previous border crossing – it was raining throughout; everything else about it was very different.

To start with, the border was deserted: not a single car passed through while we waited. A few trucks, though, did. There is no passenger waiting area at all. Just a warehouse where both passengers and buses are checked. Once through (with your bags) one has to wait outside for the bus to be inspected. I had never seen a close border control inspection of a vehicle before: they literally took the bus apart, then they had a dog sniff
out for drugs. The kids found this quite amusing.

Once we made it into Azerbaijan, I was happy I had already exchanged some money in a ramshackle shop on the Iranian side, even though the
rate was ridiculous: there are no exchange bureaus on the Azeri side.

There was a lot of drama in the bus after we passed the border on the way to Baku: some women were crying, some were shouting non-stop.
I think some of their goods were confiscated and on the others they probably had to pay a fine. Still, the bus kept stopping at random places along the road where local cars would wait and money and goods would change hands.

We had exchanged enough money at the border to be able to
take the metro in Baku to our hotel. We were pleasantly surprised to see that it was fairly easy to navigate (signs in Azeri, Russian and English).
Unfortunately, though, I had forgotten to download the offline map of our
hotel, so we had no clue where it was. Luckily, the hospitality and
helpfulness, which we had become so used to in Iran in the past two weeks, seemed to extend in Baku as well.

Literally everyone wanted to help us: the ticket salesman,
the police officer, random people would just stop and take out their phone to try to figure out the location of our hotel. Eventually, a young man, speaking fluent French (very unusual, we were told, yet this was the second time it happened in Azerbaijan in the course of a few hours!), decided to get off at our tube stop and walked us to the hotel.

It was ‘difficult’ to get back to reality otherwise: the cost of things were back to what one would get in Europe. Baku seemed the most expensive city so far on our travels. On the positive side, we were happy to be
back in a culture where we could enjoy a very nice glass of local red wine on our first dinner there.

On that note, even though Azerbaijan is a Muslim country, it is obvious they have adapted their religious beliefs to a Western model of modern society. People in Baku were extremely fashionable, well-groomed, and
good looking. Barely a single woman wore the hijab or conservative clothing. Once more, London comparisons come to mind, as those Muslim women clearly didn’t seem to think it is a religious requirement to cover! Men also seemed to care for their appearances to such an extent that I decided to get a haircut too.

The hotel where we stayed was serviced by a group of young people who, again, were eager to help. I don’t know if this is an Azeri custom, but they walked us to the restaurant for dinner, to the taxi stand, to the exchange bureau, and, yes, even to the barber shop. And these were not places around the corner, but a good 10-15 min. walk.

Baku is a weird mixture of modern Yerevan and old Tbilisi. It seems more compact than either though. We stayed in the old city which is still surrounded by a wall (cars need to pay extra to enter). This part of Baku
has been restored to such pristine conditions that it feels a bit of artificially old: you aren’t going to get the dusty, crumbling feeling of time having swept its hands through it.

This was in stark contrast with Iran. While even there, we eventually realized, many mosques and cultural artifacts had been restored, people
had somehow managed to preserve the feeling of history passing by. This was only enhanced by historical sights being everywhere. Iran is a bit like Italy in that sense: there is history on every corner. Baku also has beautiful
mosques, ancient palace, etc. but they pale in comparison with what we saw in Iran.

So, in Baku we just took it easy and simply enjoyed walking the streets. That’s how we stumbled upon the Flame Towers, symbolizing Azerbaijan’s rich deposits of natural gas and oil (later, on the way to the seaport, we also saw the constant blaze of fire coming from the mountains in
the distance where the deposits are).

We also saw an enormous KFC restaurant (my son told me that, apparently, it is the largest KFC in the world!). Actually, already in Iran a five-star hotel would proudly have one of its floors dedicated to a fast food restaurant. The imposing building, which hosted this KFC in Baku, then
clearly indicated that fast food is quite well regarded by the locals in Central Asia. Could it be that it is still a novelty and a connection to the
western world and culture which the young people in these countries strive to emulate?

On the way to the Flame Towers we saw a massive flag in the distance. We did not think much of it, having already seen the massive flags in
Turkey, but later on we found out that it was the second largest one in the
world. In fact, until 2010, when they raised the one in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, it was the largest. Azerbaijan, though claims other ‘firsts’. For example, it was, unofficially the first country to declare independence from the Soviet Union in March 1991. It is also considered the first democratic Islamic republic (saying that, they have had a father and son as presidents pretty much since independence, with the son now serving three terms, when officially two terms is the maximum – so, I don’t know how that works).

Of course, we also did the ‘obligatory” sightseeing: Maiden Tower, roamed the streets of the old city, visited the Palace. There was one thing on our minds though: how to cross the Caspian Sea.

We had initially planned to go north around the Caspian Sea because there are no passenger ferries across (and we were told it wasn’t worthy to get the expensive Turkmenistan visa). Talking to people and digging deeper into travel blogs, however, we found out that one could still cross the Caspian Sea as a passenger on a cargo ship. The only problem is that there are no schedules for those: they leave only when required by the specific type of cargo. Still, we decided to try that option.

This meant that we had to call every morning the Caspian Shipping Company to find out if there was a boat going to Kazakhstan that day.
We got lucky on our third day in Baku. We were told that the boat would leave at 10pm so, as the port is 70km south of Baku, and eager to be there in plenty of time to acquire tickets for the boat, we left the city at 2pm.

This was the start of, possibly, the longest 24h of my life! It made me wish I was a truck driver: at least they have a bed in the back of their cabin!

We arrived at around 3pm and bought the $70 (per person – it includes bed and meals) ticket with no problem. We found out, though, that the boat might “only dock at 10pm, which means you will embark around 2am, and the boat might eventually leave around 5am”. Ok, we can survive
that.

Wait a minute. This is not a passenger port, there is no passenger terminal! The facilities consisted of a bunch of containers which were transformed to be a “drivers’ waiting area”, a shop, a bank, the Caspian Shipping Company’s office, a police booth and the smelliest, most disgusting toilet I had ever seen in my life!

We can do this?! Yeah, right.

The sight of a family seemed to cause a lot of excitement among the police and the truck drivers – as one can imagine, this is predominantly a man’s world. The police kept double checking our passports and asked me several times if this was indeed my wife and these were really our kids!

We soon found out how the system works: you buy eggs, sausages and vegetables from the makeshift shop and get the guy who mans the waiting area to cook them for you (I made a mistake not to agree a price first for his services, and, of course, he tried to charge us restaurant prices!).

There was nothing to do there. No free Wi-Fi. The kids were reading and trying to do some schoolwork but overall it was a huge exercise of our patience and managing our expectations in the face of the uncertainty of when we would depart.

We ended ‘sleeping’ on rackety chairs all night. Around midnight there was some commotion but it turned out it was the boat to Turkmenistan that was leaving (after also several hours of delay). No one had any information about what was happening to our boat. Around 7am I went to the ‘office’ of the Caspian Shipping Company and knocked on the door. The same guy who sold us the tickets the day before appeared from behind and asked me angrily what was going on. I said, I simply wanted to know if our boat had even docked. He just snapped back something like, “I was sleeping, how would I know?!”

If only we had been given some information, instead of spending so much time waiting aimlessly at the port, we could have visited the mud volcanoes which were very close by. Because of the enormous reserves of oil and gas (before the discovery of oil in the Arabian Peninsula, Azerbaijan boasted the world’s largest deposits – the scenery outside Baku is dominated by oil wells), Azerbaijan apparently has almost half of the world’s mud volcanoes in existence!

Finally, one of the police guys took pity on us and showed us on his phone (using one of those apps) that our boat was just outside of the harbor waiting to dock as soon as a berth got freed up. Finally, some hope.

We eventually embarked at 3pm and the boat departed at 7pm
for the 22h crossing of the Caspian Sea.

Let me tell you a secret: there is nothing special about crossing the Caspian Sea. We got lucky true: the sea was flat as a pancake (and
there is nothing to see but… water there – no other boats either), the
weather was nice and sunny, the crew was friendly (they allowed Georgia and my daughter to use special quarters when they needed to), the food was decent, and, yes, the truck drivers were friendly. I am not sure whether we even saved time compared to if we went around through Russia. So, apart from just saying, “we did cross the Caspian Sea”, there is not much else to say about that.

Silk Road (4): We took a bus ride to Iran

12 Friday Oct 2018

Posted by beyondoverton in EM, Travel

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Iran

I cursed the sky to open
I begged the clouds for rain
I prayed all night for water
For this burning in my veins
It was like my soul’s on fire
And I had to watch the flames
All my dreams went up in ashes
And my future blew away

Now the oil’s gone
And the money’s gone
All the jobs are gone
Still we’re hangin’ on

Down in dry county

~Bon Jovi

 

Something is happening in Iran and you know it by the way the currency moves…

I had done a lot of research for this Silk Road trip, started in early January to think of an itinerary. But not everything could be planned in advance. When it comes to Iran, nothing could be booked in advance.

As it turned out, this was quite fortuitous. First and foremost, the exchange rate moved in our favour: a month before we entered Iran the Rial lost ⅔ of its value. This was on top of the already quite good value of accommodation, transport etc. which existed there before.

The official money in Iran is Rial, but because of the enormous number of zeros (I constantly carried tens of millions of Rial in my pocket; a dinner for four would cost around 2 million), the locals have a made-up unit called Toman, which simply has one fewer zero. It was very, very confusing at first to get around that because it was not obvious whether the quotes were in Rials or Toman – not for the locals, of course, who were used to the prices of specific items and goods.

It was not easy to know where to exchange though as there is the unofficial exchange rate and the official one, which is about half that. And while we were there, the Rial depreciated by another 30%! And it’s not like a foreigner can just look up the exchange rate online for guidance (no Bloomberg app!). The first time I needed to exchange (at the Armenia-Iran border) I relied on a kind fellow bus passenger to educate me on the intricacies of the Iranian street exchange rate market, and more importantly, to give me the approximately “correct” level from an app on his phone.

In Tehran, we simply stumbled on one of the main exchange points: Ferdowsi Square. It reminded me a bit of “The Magurata” in Sofia, Bulgaria in the late days of communism/early days of capitalism. In terms of the way the crowd worked, though, it might have operated a bit closer to any open-cry exchanges in US in the good old days! This kind of market was though quite unsophisticated: a few blocks away from the square, there opened the possibility of a clear arb.

Second, self-organized trips are cheaper than going through a travel agent anywhere in the world but in Iran they are incredibly so. This is because in Iran it’s extremely difficult to self-organize a tour from abroad. Because of decades-long sanctions, the Iranian payment system is not linked to the rest of the world’s directly: one cannot use foreign-issued credit or debit cards in the country. Therefore, there are agencies outside of Iran which facilitate the booking of all tourist-related activities (for small items, like tickets for buses and tourist attractions, the premium, though, could be more than 100%, especially after the devaluation). The option is either to use them or to carry lots of cash and do it on the go once in the country.

Not knowing the exact date/time etc. we would be in the country, forced us to organise internal traveling ourselves, once on the spot. Incidentally, this saved us a lot of money. The downside of doing this was, though, that the hassle and uncertainty, which normally accompany such activity, were amplified by our inability to speak, understand and read a totally different language and writing. After a couple of days in the country, we realized we should at least learn the written numbers in Farsi (by the way, Farsi is just ‘Persian’ in Arabic – apparently the Arabs had difficulty pronouncing the ‘P’ sound). This was partially spurred by the fear of being too easily cheated!

People trying to take advantage of us being foreigners in Iran were, however, fewer than what we normally experienced in the other countries so far on our trip. Everyone is of course aware how much more foreigners can afford now compared to not only a month ago but also in general. However, I did not see any bitterness on their side. They just accept it as a way of life. As one businessman observed, “We are a country of sanctions and we have learned how to cope with them; there is nothing new with these new ones; but, yes, it is disappointing because we thought we were finally getting along.”

But let me backtrack a bit here: to get to Tehran, in the spirit of this trip, we took a bus ride from Yerevan! That was a long journey – more than 24 hours – with crossing the border in the middle of the night. However, the bus was rather comfortable (it even had a carpet in the middle lane) and, as with all long-range buses on this trip, one gets complimentary food and drinks.

The distance to the border is only around 400 km but it takes at least 10 hours to get to, as the road passes through some very tricky mountainous terrain along where, in the crevices on the sharper turns, we saw the remnants of a few cars. (If you have ever been to the ski resort Les Deux Alpes, imagine the 20 km stretch at the end, to the top, but multiply that by 20, constantly going up and down – that’s Yerevan to the Iranian border). On the positive side, the landscape is absolutely stunning!

I knew that there were daily buses from Yerevan to Tehran but I had no idea where exactly they left from and how much they cost. As it turned out, because they are operated by different companies, they all leave from different places and their cost varies. No easy way to find out this information either online or even through the hotel. Best is to go to a travel agency (of which there are many in Yerevan). There are obviously alternative ways to travel but they are much more expensive (the locals could take us only to the border for the price of our whole trip to Tehran, for example).

Our first impression of the Iranian people, from meeting some Iranians on our bus, coincided with what we had read and what other people told us: they were very friendly and curious to meet and help foreigners. That impression indeed stayed till the end of our journey in Iran. In fact, when we asked people if they are equally friendly to themselves as well, not just to foreigners, they told us that they are friendly to everyone who needs help, but foreigners, obviously, seem to need more help in Iran.

We spent the time on the bus talking with our newly-made friends about everything: from what to see in Iran, to education, history, cultures and even politics. In fact, the one thing Iranians really love is talking politics. They openly discuss current affairs (as one Iranian later pointed out to us, “I can assure you there are more Iranians who like America than Americans who like Iran”).

We intentionally avoided bringing in religion in any of our conversation not to stir sensitivities, however, it was clear that most of the people we met, while religious, did not necessarily agree with the extreme religious requirements in place. For example, throughout our stay, we were super careful not to break any laws or customs having heard how strict the authorities are: we made sure that our 15-year old daughter, who looks more like 10, had the hijab on all the time. But locals kept telling us not to worry, that young girls do not even need to wear a veil. In fact, while having a dinner in one of those open courtyards of their traditional houses in Isfahan, we noticed that even some of the local women had their hijab off, resting on their shoulders (a sight quite common especially in norther Tehran).

A similar attitude of resignation rather than active promotion of was adopted towards the issue of separation between the sexes. While, men and women cannot ride in the same subway carriage, cannot go together to the swimming pool, cannot hold hands or show any kind of affection in public, etc., on several occasions we saw locals disregarding such rules whenever they could get away with it (i.e. kissing and hugging in the street).

As tourists, the daily reality of a society which enforces the separation of sexes barely touched us anyway. We only got a small taste of it when it came to wanting to use the swimming pool as a family (which we couldn’t) or attending a mosque during a religious ceremony. Once, I waited patiently outside the Shah Mosque on Naqsh-e Jahan Square in Isfahan for a long time with my son and a crowd of other men while Georgia and my daughter were visiting inside during prayer time. A few of them struck a conversation with me, probably seeing my worried face and my glazing eyes for a view of my wife and daughter, hopefully, exiting the mosque. They were really surprised that I was worried and assured me the mosque was “the safest place one could possibly find”.

We stopped a few times along the road before we reached Iran – once because the cooling system of the bus stopped working, another time for lunch. We had prepared our own snacks but I had left about $3 worth of ADM and went to buy some ‘ayryan’ (yogurt mixed with water and some spices – it is the best thirst quencher). I struck a conversation with the owner, an Iranian, who was very curious to see an ‘European-looking’ family in this part of the world – only locals and probably a few really adventurous backpackers otherwise take the bus to Iran – tourists take the plane!

I bought some plain rice just so that the AMD does not go to ‘waste’. When he realized this was our last Armenian money he brought us some meat to go with the rice, water and tea! That was even though I kept telling him that I do not have any more AMD to pay for it: he was genuinely very generous! This was going to be one of our many encounters with the amazing Iranian hospitality.

We passed through several small towns before we reached the border. Inevitably, they looked very 1960-70s Soviet style but they were impressive because I had never seen old Soviet block of apartments perched on the rocks in the mountain.

Finally, we reached the border. Its crossing was surreal: we walked through into no-man’s land for almost 1 km. In total darkness. Otherwise, both Armenian and Iranian passport controls were swift and courteous. Once in Iran, however, we had to further wait for the bus to pass customs control – and that took hours!

Past the border we fell asleep only to be woken up a few hours later and ordered to get off the bus! I feared something bad happening but it was only a rest stop – I think the bus driver must get a commission from the ‘restaurant’ for every person who buys something otherwise I do not get it why we had to leave the bus (the kids were very unhappy). Eventually, most people just bought some tea, only the bus drivers entered the restaurant.

I woke up with the first rays of sunlight eager to lay my eyes for the first time on this place I heard and read so much about! Iran is mostly a desert sprayed with some rocky mountains and an oasis here and there. The road system is, however, much better than either Georgia or Armenia: all the main highways even have toll booths! There are plenty of police speed checks, and in general, plenty of police presence. As a result, driving is very civilized, one could say, as good as any European highway (excluding the Mediterranean ones, of course!).

Arriving in Tehran in the early morning or, possibly, at any time of the day is a totally different matter. There are simply no traffic rules. At all! I have never seen anything like this anywhere. Perhaps Mumbai comes close but still not comparable. For cars constantly drive against traffic whenever, on the several-lanes avenues, there is a gap of oncoming traffic (or not!). Motorcycles commonly take to the pavements whenever traffic is slow or the road is one way and they need to go in the opposite direction (what is amazing is that they beep at the pedestrians to move away as if it is the pedestrians who have invaded their territory, not the other way around).

And traffic lights – what are those for? The weird thing is that there is police literally on every major crossing!

On our first day, we attempted to walk for half an hour to reach the Grand Bazaar from our hotel. This was the one and only time we did this given the state of the traffic, the inexorable heat and the awful pollution (on the positive side, this is when we stumbled across Ferdowsi Square and the local foreign exchange market). In the evening, the coolness of the air (Tehran is very close to the highest peak in the Middle East) and the lack of traffic make walking more manageable. We went then looking for a restaurant and as we stopped to ask one man for help, a small crowd gathered, all trying to help or just being curious. Foreign tourists do not randomly walk the streets of Tehran. In fact, we saw very, very few tourists in Tehran and that was in Golestan Palace.

That evening we met an Iranian who spoke fluent Italian who invited us to his brother’s apartment for dinner! The brother also spoke fluent Italian (and a few other languages). As we were not in the mood for spaghetti and in search of local flavours, they took us to this wonderful cafe where we had an amazing evening. This was yet another example of the famous Iranian hospitality.

Tehran was too much for me. Apart from the noise and havoc in the street, the Grand Bazaar was also a disappointment of sort. It is imposing and busy but not that different from the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul: in fact, anything not an artefact or authentic is made in Turkey or China. For a real experience of a different sort of Grand Bazaar, I recommend visiting Isfahan’s. Golestan Palace, though, is definitely worth a visit: our first encounter of traditional Iranian architecture and beautifully coloured tiles everywhere!

We were indeed told that to visit the real beauty of the country, one must really go in the mountains just north of the city for nature or head south towards the Persian Gulf for history, culture and nature combined! This is then what we did by heading to Kashan, about 3 hours bus ride from the South Terminal in Tehran. Kashan is this quiet and quirky little town full of traditional houses. A traditional house is one with an internal wide-open courtyard, a fountain in the middle, and with lots of little passages that lead to different size rooms. These houses are really stunning.

We made a point to stay in one despite our self-imposed backpackers’ budget. But Kashan is much cheaper than Tehran and, especially, our next stop, Isfahan, so it actually fitted us perfectly. I really liked Kashan. Among other things I especially enjoyed playing backgammon with the locals (though I lost). I do not understand why of all places recommended for tourists to must see in Iran, Kashan is the least favourite. Perhaps because it is a little village compared to all the others but is really charming. Plus, there is a lot to see in the surroundings.

It is for this reason that we decided to take a private car the following day, instead of the bus, to Isfahan. On the way, we visited the highest village in Iran, Abyaneh (2,222m above sea level). It is more than 2,500 years old and its houses, which are made of red mud and straw, have mostly survived the centuries. Abyaneh reminded me of many villages perched along the hills in the Italian countryside: it is that different from anything else in Iran. Even the locals wear very different clothes than anywhere else we visited.

While planning Iran, we did not factor in that our stay will coincide with the end of their most important religious holiday: you must have seen the men wearing black and green and beating themselves with branches on TV or online. For two days, everything closes in the country. That reality fully caught up with us while in Isfahan. That was unfortunate for us but it also gave us a chance to learn more about this tradition by visiting these ceremonies: the locals were very eager to explain things to us and they took lots of pictures! On the upside, during those two days there are stands all across the city which give away free food, tea, sweets and fruits (most restaurants are closed as well).

It was business as usual the morning we had scheduled to leave Isfahan, thus we managed to visit quickly the stunning central square, which is surrounded by two imposing mosques, a palace and the Grand Bazaar. A peculiar thing about Isfahan is the Armenian quarters, and particularly Venk Cathedral: one of the most exquisitely decorated churches I have ever seen. The surrounding area is also full of cute cafes where one could finally have a proper coffee (Iranians do not really drink coffee, and if they do, it is nescafĂŠ).

Once in Shiraz we visited many mosques, treated ourselves to some proper (European-style) restaurant food – after eating mostly ‘street food’ until then, this was a welcome diversion, though the bill looked astronomical (2 million, 800 thousand Rial), and organised our visit to Persepolis and Necropolis. Persepolis was great, but it is Necropolis that is magnificently different than any other ancient ruins I have ever seen, consisting of carved tombs in the middle of the mountain. In fact, Persepolis reminded me of the Baalbek Roman ruins in the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon.

I will actually remember Persepolis for almost choking on water. We had left Shiraz at 8:30 (rather than the suggested 8:00) in the morning. By 11am it was so hot and I was so thirsty, that eager to refresh, I gulped the water in a hurry and it went the wrong way…which is ironic, because one thing that will stay with me from Iran is how dry the country is. All the cities we stayed in had totally dry river beds. And there are so many fountains and water passages everywhere and they are all dry. I can only imagine how more beautiful Iran’s already well-preserved gardens and courtyards would look otherwise.

The changing of the climate globally is partially to blame: it is difficult to imagine that it would snow in the winter in Iran even 10 years ago (and the snow would actually keep) in the middle of the desert. The locals did not remember when it was that it properly rained last time. But this is also Iran’s own doing: the building of an intricate underground water system, eventually completely dried the on-the-ground natural water. This is not something necessarily recent. In fact, almost all cities we visited, but especially the ones in the south, had ancient underground water canals. They run deep and are still open – one could easily go down to the bottom.

In light of this water problem, I was surprised to find out that water is safe to drink almost everywhere we went – and there are public drinking fountains all over the cities we visited. Same holds for public toilets – they are free and they are everywhere (some of them are indeed “ancient”). In fact, the cities are kept in almost pristine condition: there is very little garbage on the street, plenty of bins and sanitary workers attending to the streets even late into the evening.

Another unexpected aspect of Iran for me was how digitalized commerce is. Credit/debit card payments are common everywhere, in the bazaars, on the street, and even in the most run-down taxis. In the major cities, there is a bank literally on every corner. I don’t know if they have the equivalent of Amazon but, they do have the equivalent of Uber called ‘Snap’. One could also easily book bus tickets online. Of course, we could not enter this digital world, but people were happy to book things online for us.

Our last stop before completing our Iran journey back to Tehran was Yazd, the centre of Zoroastrianism and the largest wind catcher in the world. On the way there, we saw a 4000 years old living organism, a cedar tree. In Yazd, I started to get restless about the exchange rate and its massive drop. Having worked in Emerging Markets for so many years, I feared this was not a good omen. My unease was also further exacerbated by the fact that since we had left Tehran it was a constant struggle to find a ‘proper’ place to exchange money (unless one was happy to pay the unrealistic rate at the hotels). The Grand Bazaars were the obvious places but even there, there was not one designated spot. In the Grand Bazaar in Tehran, for example, there is an area where all exchange matters are handled, similar to Ferdowsi Square. In Kashan we had to ask a few shops and finally we were led to a secluded place on the second floor of an otherwise mostly empty building. In Isfahan and Shiraz, it was randomly in the street, mostly around taxi stands. Funnily enough, it was in Yazd that there were several official exchange shops on designated streets, however by then the exchange rate had moved so much that locals were getting so concerned that we would be asked even by everyday workers to exchange.

When it comes to currencies, it is obvious Iranian people prefer EUR to USD now, probably as they see Europe as a viable emigration possibility. But whenever I struck conversation with business people about economic matters, it is interesting that they did not see any other alternative to the US Dollar. They think Europe has no choice but to eventually succumb to US pressure on sanctions: “one thing is for the government not to support these sanctions, but a private company would never take the risk and avoid them for fear of US business repercussions”.

They do not see Russia or China as alternatives either. In fact, they seem to look even more suspiciously at them as well: “Russia is simply a brute force and Russian tourists have a massive attitude of superiority”, while “China is a smart opportunist looking only after itself and Chinese tourists are simply clueless – you talk to them for 5 minutes while they just stare at you and eventually you realize they did not understand anything you said”. Moreover, “what are we going to do with all these RUB and CNY, we can’t buy anything we want from them, so we end up exchanging them back into USD and EUR to have access to global markets”.

This is a stark reminder to China which wants to make the CNY a global currency: they either have to offer something (goods and services) the rest of the world wants to buy with their currency in exchange or to offer safe store of capital, the way the US has done all these years. It seems China has played its goods for exports card already: global consumer markets are swamped with cheap Chinese goods. Which means they have to move up the value chain (which they are trying to, especially in technology) or free up the capital account and develop massively their financial services market. I will come to this after my visit to China.

Indeed, for a country under sanctions for so many years, there is a massive oversupply of goods in Iran (for now). The bazaars are full of consumer goods and there is plenty of food: fruits, vegetables, meat, bread, rice, teas…and rich sweet shops. The best thing was buying freshly baked bread straight from the oven – it is an amazing feeling which brought back memories from my childhood years in Bulgaria when we used to do the same.

And, again, the people are so generous – you can try anything in the shops and they are absolutely not offended if you decide not to buy. We walked one late evening back to the hotel in Yazd and passed by an oven with freshly baked bread. A man had just purchased half a dozen flat breads. Trying to balance them on his motorcycle, he saw us looking curiously inside wondering whether to go in and buy some bread. He just took one of his breads and insisted on giving it to us as a gift.

After Yazd we were once more back in Tehran, the only place where we could catch an international bus. This time we purposely stayed in the north to be able to see another aspect of the city. Indeed, if there is any social separation in Iran, it is most obvious in Tehran, which is clearly divided between the northern rich, residential and full of nature – a stroll in verdant, mountainous Durband is a must – and the southern poor part of the city. In fact, one could say that northern Tehran stands out among everything we saw inside the country.

I don’t know if this new round of sanctions would have a different effect on Iran’s economy than any of the previous ones. While there is still an abundance of some consumer goods, prices of water, rent and some other essentials and services have gone up. In fact, it is inevitable that the price of any good which has an imported component would be rising and with the Rial continuing to lose its value things could become really difficult.

Silk Road (3): Fast Car

30 Sunday Sep 2018

Posted by beyondoverton in EM, Travel

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Armenia

“You got a fast car

I got a plan to get us out of here

I been working at the convenience store

Managed to save just a little bit of money

Won’t have to drive too far

Just’ cross the border and into the city

You and I can both get jobs

And finally see what it means to be living.”

~Tracy Chapman

I am not sure if Armenians are ‘worse’ drivers than their Georgian neighbors or, actually, ‘more skilled’, considering the incredibly poor state of their transportation infrastructure. The road leading to the Georgian-Armenian border indeed is only one lane and once past it, it becomes one of the worst major roads I have been on so far. Avoiding the humongous holes and the incoming traffic was an incredible feat (our driver even proceeded to overtake an ambulance whose lights and siren were on). We were duly stopped by the police a few kilometers after for speeding.

The driver’s skill was even more incredible considering that a lot of the cars in Armenia are beyond ancient: I have never seen so many old Soviet cars since I lived in Bulgaria in the 1980s. I think literally all the trucks we saw were ‘Zils’ or ‘Kamaz’. Funnily enough though, the Armenians seem to take a lot of pride in their cars. Indeed, our driver – who, despite the fact that we picked up the minivan at the Tbilisi bus station, his lack of spoken Russian and his abruptness, was Armenian – got really upset when we ate some chakapuri (bread with cheese) and a few crumbles fell on the floor of the car. He did not calm down even after we cleaned up everything. All this even though the minivan was an ancient Mercedes with worn-off interior and holes in the plastic dashboard.

The area along the border here is very mountainous but the landscape changes from plush, almost tropical in Georgia to arid, almost desert-like in Armenia (similar to the one around Kars in Turkey). The border crossing itself was very straightforward: modern and absolutely no queuing at all. The kids and Georgia were sitting in the back, while I was squeezed in between a lady with more bags than she could carry and a poker player with just a ‘man’s bag’ in his hand. Still, she asked me, and not him, to help carry one of her bags across the border (was she a ‘trader’ of some sort?).

We arrived in Yerevan under a scorcher. If the driver likes you he will stop anywhere you ask him too. I had developed a connection with the poker player, who was in Tbilisi overnight to play as he had been banned from all casinos in Yerevan, so he helped us get to our hotel. We found tennis in common with him: Andre Agassi, who, according to him, is an Armenian born in Iran and living in US (the lady thought that even Serena Williams is of Armenian origin!).

The old town of Yerevan is like Chernokonevo, the village upon which my home town, Dimitrovgrad, was built after WW2 – a few shanty houses. But unlike Dimitrovgrad, Yerevan is an ancient city with rich history and culture. All the wars and earthquakes must have put a heavy toll on this city. Maybe, this is why there is massive amount of construction going on, much more than I saw in either Istanbul or Tbilisi, or, in fact, in any European city. To see ancient Armenian churches and castles one has to go in the surroundings of Yerevan and across the border in Turkey.

In fact, Yerevan is very modern: there are a lot of art installations and monuments all over the city. But most of the architecture is still Soviet style. Yerevan is also very vibrant. While we were there it was full of street musicians, there was even a live concert of a Russian band, and the singing fountains in Republic Square were on every evening.

Armenian food is somewhat similar to Georgian – just slightly different versions of the same dish. I did not see the khinkali equivalent in Armenia though. And, of course, Georgian wine is out of this world. But I found Armenian fruits sweeter, especially the apricots (I am really gutted I did not try the Georgian watermelon, though). The Georgians have this ‘churchuri’ made out of dried fruits and nuts held together by grape molasses; the typical Armenian equivalent is to take the whole dried fruit and fill it up with nuts – both are absolutely outstanding!

As I mentioned before, we are doing this trip the backpackers’ way, meaning we use as much public transportation as possible. Turkey was perfect in that sense – very easy. Georgia was ok – we used the metro. But while there is more Cyrillic on the signs along the road in Armenia (than in Georgia) Yerevan’s metro is very small and the signs are only in Armenian. Therefore, we walked till, under 34C, at some point it became impossible. So, we took a taxi back and forth to the Armenian Genocide Memorial – it cost us less than $2 equivalent each way and both drivers were very pleasant and polite (I could communicate in Russian).

Having spent some time now also in Armenia, combined with our experience in Georgia, made me reflect on our expectations regarding the service industry and how it affects our views of a country and its people. In Tbilisi, the restaurant waiter may indeed have been less attentive according to our standards, but we felt very welcomed when we were invited to the house of our friend’s friend and treated to tea, coffee and fruits. In Yerevan, even though the hotel’s clerk was clueless when asked basic tourist information and she clearly didn’t seem to think it was part of her job description to help, the doorman kindly helped us.

It made me question whether the level of service we expect is linked to our culture. In particular, I guess, I was surprised at my own Western bias, considering I grew up behind the Iron Curtain. It made me wonder what possible hope we have to teach our kids tolerance and understanding of other cultures by any other means than travelling through them

Silk Road (2): Could beautiful nature and ancient history create a false sense of entitlement?

29 Saturday Sep 2018

Posted by beyondoverton in EM, Travel

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Georgia

The first thing that struck me in Georgia was the Toyota Priuses. I think that literally every third car was a brand-new Prius. That was in stark contrast to almost all other cars which were very run-down Opels, Fords, BMWs, etc. You could still see the old Soviet Lada, Jiguli and Volga too.

We took the ‘marshrutka’ (minibus) from the border to the rented apartment in Batumi. Needless to say, the exchange rate at the border was much worse than anywhere else in town, so apart from exchanging our leftover TRY and having enough (50 EUR cents = 1.5 GEL per person) to pay for the ride into town, no more money was necessary. The marshrutka itself was a leap into my past – the early 1990s in Bulgaria – I think the vehicle was even older than that. Moreover, it boarded at least twice the allowed capacity and our Turkish driver on the other side of the border was an angel compared to this Georgian one.

The second thing that struck me was that pretty much everyone was reluctant to speak Russian, regardless of age. The military conflict with Russia had left a big impression of some resentment but mostly bewilderment (“What possibly could the Russians want from us?”). The caretaker of the apartment where we stayed however, brightened up when I told him I am originally Bulgarian and gave us a very nice bottle of local homemade red wine.

Batumi has an impressive beachside boulevard where we spent our day strolling about and riding on mini-scooters. The scooters had their own designated lane but at 20-25 km/h they could still pose danger to the pedestrians who walked nonchalantly in the area: I presume this was part of the Georgian driving experience anyway. Hiring the scooters ‘broke’ our daily entertainment budget but that was an offset from the transportation budget from the day before (the ‘marshrutka’) and the free ride to the train station later which our host was nice enough to offer.

Apart from the popularity which comes with its name from the old Soviet times and the casinos which I presume tourists flock to, I am not sure what else Batumi has to offer though (BTW, again, the bid-offer spread in some exchange bureaus is less than 1%). Yes, the skyline looks impressive and even the modern buildings have a very nice style, which actually blends well with some of the older architecture still visible across. But the beach itself is large rocks and no sand at all: Kobuleti, a half hour drive East, has a better beach.

The train to Tbilisi is very modern with free Wi-Fi and outlets for charging devices. It is not as fast as Istanbul-Ankara, though, as it takes one hour more to cover 100km less in total distance. But then the mountainous landscape does not allow it. The ride immediately after leaving Batumi train station runs for several kilometers literally along the beach where there are still the old Soviet style (very rundown) blocks of apartments alongside some impressive villas. If the mountains on the Turkish side of the border reminded me of Switzerland, this side of the border looked much more like Costa Rica – almost tropical. And while the Turkish side has much more order and the houses looked generally nicer, everything looked rundown in Georgia.

Tbilisi, however, also has a touch of Italy when it comes to its old city (and, of course, the wine): it is a quirk combination of art, imposing buildings, beautiful natural landscape and historical artifacts. It is a city for romance, full of balconies (on a visit to the city during the Cold War, M. Thatcher allegedly said, “Everywhere else they are building shelters, you are building balconies”) and night lights – the stroll to the Sulphur baths is a must. In hindsight, actually, we should have stayed longer in Tbilisi to enjoy its full splendor.

We were very lucky to meet up with a friend of a friend who spent the whole day showing us the city and its surroundings. She was amazing, such a nice and positive person. Most Georgian people in the service industry, however, looked rather miserable and even bitter somehow. I am not sure whether it was my Russian that made them so. That attitude, which sometimes merged into outright rudeness, obviously will not help business: most tourists are Russian. And knowledge of any foreign language is a plus, especially one which is spoken by hundreds of millions of people (Georgia’s population, on the other hand, is just around 4 million).

While in Turkey, I fully expected to be bargaining when engaging in an exchange as part of custom. In Georgia, the bargaining felt as if it was more about not being taken advantage of. Our host in Tbilisi, for example, offered to charge $280 (4 people) to take us to Yerevan (5 hours drive) and lied how much the ‘marshrutka’ would cost ($50 per person), when the actual price was not only $13 per person but there was plenty on offer as long as someone bothered to go to the taxi stand at the bus station.

In the local street flea market my daughter’s leaning to touch an object provoked an extreme reaction by the shopkeeper – she yelled so violently that passers-by stopped to see what happened. In one shop there was even a sign in English that said “Customer is not always right”!

I am only guessing here, but all this could be related to a sense of entitlement, also very common in my home country, Bulgaria. Small countries like these, which are lucky to have amazing nature, are full of ancient history and once had very sophisticated culture, but which were more recently easily conquered by other more populous, but less ‘ancient’ nations, do maybe tend to feel superior and to blame external forces for their issues. In that sense, Georgia is both an old and a very new country at the same time: having gained its independence from the Soviet Union only a few decades ago, it still lacks the proper institutional infrastructure and framework to really make decisions in its own interest. It is naĂŻve to think that having exited one ‘union’, joining another would automatically solve all problems.

Before passing a real judgement about the way a traveler is treated in Georgia, however, I feel we need to complete our journey and revisit, under the light of new experiences, this first opinion I formed.

Silk Road (1): If Turkey is in crisis, it’s not obvious visiting it

20 Thursday Sep 2018

Posted by beyondoverton in EM, Travel

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Turkey

One year after I left HSBC, and after more than 20 years in the business, I have finally left London with my family to seek other opportunities. We are currently on our land journey to Asia where we plan to relocate for the foreseeable future. That last one year in London went fast into organizing the trip, getting my tennis coaching credentials and actually enjoying time spent with the family. We even managed to squeeze in 6 weeks in our beach house in Italy!

We plan to follow the Silk Road as much as possible without taking any unnecessary risks by visiting certain places along the route. I am typing this at the moment from a very modern and fast train in the middle of Turkey but we started the journey in Italy, of course, the Marco Polo way, on September 1 and stayed for a few days in my home country, Bulgaria. The fact that my parents live one hour away from the Turkish border made the bus trip to Istanbul very easy and convenient. In fact, if it was not that the border crossing takes unreasonably long (due to the fact that Bulgaria is part of the EU and Turkey is not – the incredibly long queue of trucks is a stark warning to what perhaps awaits at the border between France and the UK after Brexit), using Ataturk Airport instead of Vrajdebna Sofia Airport might have been a more efficient option for most people living in Bulgaria close to the Turkish border.

Istanbul is as magnificent as always and as I remember it from visiting it on numerous occasions before both for work and pleasure. In fact, even more so because the ancient history and culture are very well blended with the modernity of the present times: public transportation (bus, tram, metro, ferry) is very efficient and much easier to navigate than many other European cities; getting tickets for attractions is straightforward; even the bid/offer spread in some foreign exchange bureaus is better than some professional retail platforms I used while trading for my own account in London this past year (BTW, best ones I came across are around the Spice Bazaar – that makes exchanging and using physical cash, still infinitely better than withdrawing local currency from a foreign based account or paying by credit card)!

The contrast between ancient and modern is indeed striking when it comes to religion. We were in a small barber shop in Besiktas in which the TV was showing scantily dressed women dancing provocatively on Turkish pop music while the mosque loudspeakers across the street were blaring the daily prayer. The locals in Istanbul still do not get dressed that much differently than the locals of any European Mediterranean country. Are there more women wearing burqas than what I remember from previous visits? I noticed the fully-covered ones but they were mainly in the touristic part of the city and I wonder how many of them were actually foreigners – in fact, London’s Knightsbridge has probably more of them than Istanbul’s Sultanahmet.

If Turkey is in crisis there is absolutely no sign of that in Istanbul… except that everything is much cheaper for a EUR/USD-based foreigner. And when it comes to the service industry at least, Istanbul is no different than London, for example: most of the personnel is foreign. Reality is slightly different than that, of course, for just like London is not a good representation of the UK, Istanbul is not one of Turkey either.

We crossed the whole country west to east all the way to the border with Georgia. We saw small villages and bigger towns. Especially in the villages we would struggle to see women who were not covered. Not the burqas that we know but the square headscarves. But then again, the reality is not that dissimilar in many villages in Bulgaria and even in some European Mediterranean countries: I feel this is more a question of generations’ customs than religion.

Our journey across Turkey was mostly by train. In fact, we are doing this trip the ‘old-fashioned’ way, the way I remember my school years: a backpack, hostels, and public transportation as much as possible. I want to see these countries not through the eyes of the Ministry of Finance or the central bank, which is the way we used to do it in the business, but through the people and their daily lives. I also want my kids to understand how privileged and lucky they have been so far.

Istanbul-Ankara was a modern, fast train with Wi-Fi and all the amenities. The train station in Istanbul, strangely enough, was just two tracks one hour away from the city center. Ankara’s one, on the other hand, was a modern spacious building, resembling more Heathrow T5, but right in the center of the city.

Ankara-Kars is an overnight train, slower and less modern (no Wi-Fi) than Istanbul-Ankara but better than London-Glasgow (friendlier service, fridge with complementary food and drinks and slippers!), for example (compared to when I last did that journey about 5 years ago). We used the time on the train to just look out and reflect. In fact, we did this for hours and we did not mind because it brought back memories from when we used to do that kind of travelling with our parents on long journeys. When I say ‘we’, I meant I and Georgia. Our kids’ attention span is infinitely smaller and their idea of entertainment profoundly different. Not that there was much of it (they do have to study on our trip) but they had to constantly be reminded to leave the digital distractions so easily available to them.

The one thing that stuck me while passing through the interior of Turkey was the heavy presence of the military: there are military barracks literally in every town we passed. Kars, itself has a few. We arrived late in the evening and while walking to the hotel we merged with the backpackers’ ‘crowd’. Kars is the eastern-most large city for visiting Georgia and Armenia (latter indirectly as the border is closed). There is heavy influence of either Armenian or (further northeast) Georgian culture. If you are looking for a financial or economic crisis, you are not going to see any traces of it in Kars either.

The drive to the Georgian border was through what I can best describe as the Switzerland of Turkey: the landscape changes from flat arid land to picturesque mountains literally immediately. The Turkey-Georgian border crossing would have been straightforward too if it was not for walking in no man’s land for half a kilometer under torrential rain (and make-up cover). By the way, the queue of trucks waiting to cross the border was at least twice longer than at the Bulgaria-Turkey border crossing.

Domestic vs. foreign capital flight in EM

04 Monday Jun 2018

Posted by beyondoverton in EM

≈ 1 Comment

Domestic capital, rather than foreign capital, flight is the bigger issue for most EM now

A country with a small domestic capital base has little choice but to borrow from ‘strangers’ (Wynne Godley’s sectoral balances approach) and thus be subject to foreign capital flight whenever (foreign) interest rates rise and/or the external BoP situation worsen considerably. The inevitability of this outcome, of course, leads to the boom and bust scenario we have been so used to in EM in the past. Monitoring US economic business cycles and local external debt statistics, current and capital account balances, FX reserves, etc., becomes essential for forecasting local currency value.

However, as the EM middle class has progressively grown for the last two decades, so has the domestic capital base, and so has the importance of monitoring what the locals are doing with respect to their savings and investments. There is, therefore, also the case of domestic capital flight, which is much more difficult to quantify as its causes are much more subjective.

EM countries have responded to this development by gradually shifting to borrowing in their local currency. Thus, the ratio of local debt to external debt in EM has risen. In many cases, however, the growth of local government bond instruments has not been fast enough for the growth of the domestic capital base. Traditionally, locals have invested in real estate and some equities. If local financial markets remain underdeveloped relative to the growth of the domestic capital base, with fewer domestic investment options available, there is a bigger incentive for capital to search other investments in foreign currencies.

In addition, the larger the domestic capital base, the bigger the risk of domestic capital ‘flight’ if locals start fearing that a currency depreciation is forthcoming. In this case, money does not need to necessarily leave the country; all it takes is to be deposited in foreign currency in the domestic banking system, thus not directly available for local currency lending. For example, the level of dollarization in both Argentina and Turkey is quite high (more than 50% of all deposits are foreign currency denominated).

Finally, some locals can decide not only to convert their savings/investments in foreign currency for the reasons above but also to take them out of the country. This can happen if they also fear ‘currency appropriation’, i.e. they believe the local institutional framework is inadequate to protect their assets. For example, in 2004 Argentina decided to pay local foreign currency deposits in pesos at an exchange rate which had nothing to do with reality. There have been also many occasions where governments have re-possessed real assets (real estate or productive assets, like factories, resources, etc.).

So, a growing domestic capital base combined with an underdeveloped institutional (financial, legislative) infrastructure increases massively the risk of domestic capital flight. For a lot of EM countries currently, the case can be made that domestic capital flight is a bigger issue than foreign capital flight at the moment. How to monitor this is not that obvious though. The IMF measures reserve adequacy ratios taking into account domestic money supply, imports, external debt and other external liabilities.

The case of China and Russia

In a wonderful blog post, Brad Setser addresses the issue of how much FX reserves a country needs using this IMF framework. I do agree with his reasoning that, applied broadly, this measure tends to overstate the FX reserve adequacy ratio in some BoP surplus countries and understate it in others (large external debt borrowers). However, I do not think it is that straightforward. For example, China falls in this unique category where, despite running a BoP surplus there is a bigger risk of domestic, rather than of foreign capital, flight and the IMF measure rightly implies so.

China also has the largest single country FX reserves position. In addition, it has very little public foreign debt (though it does have a lot of corporate foreign debt). By these measures, it does look like China has more than enough of FX reserves. However, China also has a very large and growing domestic capital base, an underdeveloped financial markets infrastructure (few domestic investment options) and untested institutional framework, which are the main ingredients for a potential domestic capital flight. Indeed, we saw the risk of capital flight in 2016 when, despite of the capital controls, a lot of money found its way out of the country for the reasons mentioned above.

It will be a big test for China once it lifts its capital controls. Obviously, the level of FX reserves is extremely inadequate to keep the Yuan stable if even a small portion of the domestic capital base decides to convert to USDs. In fact, if other EM countries are an example, the prospects are not bright.

Russia experienced massive capital flight between 2006 and 2015 despite boasting higher CA surplus, higher FX reserves to GDP and lower foreign debt to GDP than China’s now. These good economic numbers were irrelevant to stop locals from converting their domestic deposits into foreign ones in the face of an untrustworthy domestic institutional framework. And despite more than seemingly adequate FX reserves, the RUB depreciated as a result.

Conclusion

So, is the IMF overstating the adequacy of FX reserves for BoP surplus countries but with large domestic deposits? It depends on people’s perception of how trustworthy the domestic institutional framework is (and what, therefore, the prospects for the currency are) and what domestic investment options are available. On the other hand, is the IMF understating the importance of bigger FX reserves for countries with large external deficits? It depends on people’s view on how high foreign interest rates could rise.

It is much more difficult to quantify the risk of domestic capital flight, and once it starts, it is also much more difficult to reverse it. On the other hand, one could say that the risk of foreign capital flight is not only smaller now, because developed markets terminal rates have been steadily declining, but also the recipe for reversing it is also more obvious – raise domestic interest rates to offset the rise in developed markets interest rates. I therefore think it is better to lean on the side of caution and allow for larger FX reserves relative to the domestic banking system for those EMs with a weaker (and untested, i.e. capital controls about to come off) institutional frameworks.

A much more efficient solution, obviously, would be to develop the domestic financial infrastructure, something which China has indeed been doing in the last few years.

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